Silver A Serious Contender For Grand Annual At Cheltenham

Last year at Cheltenham one of my biggest fancies of the week was Tommy Silver in the Martin Pipe Hurdle. After watching him win at Taunton the month before I was convinced that the step up from 2 miles would suit him, but it wasn’t to be. His stamina didn’t hold out over the 21f trip and he finished in midfield, well behind the winner Champagne Classic.

 

Tommy Silver is a very interesting contender in The Grand Annual.

He made amends in no uncertain terms when dropped back to 16f on his next start at Plumpton (gd/fm), hosing up by 9L in a class 2 handicap off a mark of 137 under regular rider Stan Sheppard. The slight ease in the ground was against him on his final start last season at Ayr, but he still ran a very creditable race to finish 6th of 16, just over 4L behind the winner Chesterfield off a mark of 142.

The 6yo son of Silver Cross was sent chasing on his return to action this season, and he has taken well to the discipline. He was beaten just a neck on his chasing debut by Optimus Prime on good to soft ground at Worcester over 2 miles and his conqueror has gone on to win both his subsequent starts. Tommy Silver broke his maiden over fences returned to quick ground at Leicester (17f) on his next start, beating Cultivator by 3.5L.

Tommy Silver had two runs in December and he ran a cracker on the first of those when chasing home Testify on soft ground at Bangor. Considering underfoot conditions were against him it was a super effort to be beaten just over a length when conceding 2lb. Testify has won twice since and is now rated 145. Tommy Silver’s last run saw him finish 3rd behind Cyarname at Kempton in the Grade 2 Wayward Lad, beaten 7L on soft ground.

He was only half a length behind the 148 rated Shantou Rock that day, and that horse illustrated the strength of the form by getting to within 2L of Sceau Royal next time out at Doncaster, a 159 rated chaser who is amongst the market leaders for the Arkle Chase. Shantou Rock was getting 5lb from the winner, but it was still a super run and a big boost to Tommy Silver’s form.

So on that evidence, off a mark of 144 I think Tommy Silver is more than reasonably treated and he has been freshened up ahead of what will be his handicap debut over the larger obstacles. A furiously run 2 miles is what this lad wants, and this race should be run exactly to suit.  He won on his return from a similar break last season so clearly he goes well fresh, and with non-runner no bet available he is worth backing each way at 25/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION GRAND ANNUAL: TOMMY SILVER E/W 25/1 NRNB

Champion Hurdle Cheltenham 2018: The Stats That Matter

Last year for Cheltenham I wrote stats based articles for the Champion Hurdle and The Gold Cup at the Cheltenham Festival and they worked out rather well. I managed to find both Sizing John and Buveur D’Air, so hopefully I can repeat the trick again in 2018. I will try to narrow the field using age, sex and price and hopefully that will reveal the most likely winner. First up is the Champion Hurdle, and to find out who the stats suggest is the most likely winner just keep on reading.

Age: More Than Just A Number


One of the most crucial factors to consider when looking for the winner of the Champion Hurdle is age. Speed is obviously an important quality to have for any horse with ambitions of landing this race, but experience is vital too too. I have looked at race results going back to 1995 and noticed that the optimum age for a potential Champion Hurdle winner is either 6 or 7 years old. 

At 11yo My Tent Or Yours' time may have passed. 

Of the 22 races run since 1995 (no race in 2001 due to foot and mouth disease outbreak) only four 8yos and two 9yos have won. Only one 5yo has won (Katchit in 2008) and a total of fifteen horses aged either 6yo or 7yo have won in that period. That means a line can be put through a host of horses, including some well fancied ones like Yorkhill (8yo), Wicklow Brave (9yo), My Tent Or Yours (11yo) and second favourite Faugheen (10yo).

Girls Up Against It

I know it might not be wise to suggest a bias regarding gender in these hyper sensitive times, but this is a trend that is near impossible to ignore when looking at previous Champion Hurdle winners. Only four mares have won it since it was first run in 1927, but there is nothing of the calibre of Dawn Run or Annie Power in this renewal.

Apple's Jade will most likely run in the Mares' Race.

Apple’s Jade and Verdana Blue are the only two girls left in the race, and with the former a very short price for the Mares’ Hurdle later on in the day she looks an unlikely runner. Verdana Blue, on all known form, looks to be punching well above her weight in this contest so I think she can be safely discounted too.

Market Signals

As anyone who follows my tips will know, I usually don’t get out of bed for anything less than a 16/1 shot. However, in the biggest races when almost every horse is guaranteed to be trying it often pays to back horses near the head of the market. The Champion Hurdle is no exception, with 15 of the last 22 winners scoring at single figure odds.

The last two stats that mattered reduced the field from 19 to 6, and this stat has a dramatic impact. Of all the horses left only one is a single figure price, and that is last year’s winner Buveur D’Air. It says a lot that of those remaining the next best in the market is Melon at 16/1, and just like the stats (and best available odds of 4/7) suggest, I think Buveur D’Air is going to be extremely hard to beat.

Champion Hurdle 2018 Verdict


It really pains me to put up an odds on shot for any race, but I was bullish about Buveur D’Air last year and not much has happened since to reduce my confidence in this horse. I love how he jumps his hurdles low and fast and the quicker they go the better he will travel. Barring accidents this lad wins on the bridle, and he could be another Istabraq in the making. 
 

Buveur D'Air looks impossible to oppose.

Apart from Buveur D’Air, I think this race looks wide open as regards place money. The next best in the market is Faugheen, a 10yo who has looked a shadow of the horse he once was on his last two starts. My Tent Or Yours is a talented individual and not many would begrudge him a win in a race in which he has run so well in before. However, he is an 11yo now and it would be a massive surprise were he fast enough to win, or even place in this contest.

At 33/1 Mick Jazz has big each way claims on good ground.

One horse who I think looks criminally overpriced is Mick Jazz. Gordon Elliott has not been over enthusiastic about this horse, but he won a Grade 1 fair and square when Faugheen was pulled up at Leopardstown’s Xmas meeting and he travelled well for a long way when 7L behind Supasundae and Faugheen at the Dublin Racing Festival. I think there could be more to come from him in a truly run 2 mile race on good ground and at 33/1 he is the pick to chase the favourite home. Melon can prove to be best of the rest in third.


STEVOS’ SELECTIONS: 1. BUVEUR D’AIR 4/7 2. MICK JAZZ 33/1 3. MELON 16/1

Back Thebarrowman To Bounce Back In Eider

Kilfenora got the job done for us in good style on Wednesday at Punchestown under a great ride from Mark Walsh. He was always travelling well in a prominent position and he pulled clear with the runner up as they turned for home. He always looked to be in control, and after jumping the last he was punched out by Walsh to score quite comfortably. He was as big as 40/1 during the day but he eventually returned at 16s. That is our second big winner of the month after Tower Bridge scored at 40s for us at Leopardstown.

Kilfenora could be Cheltenham bound. 

Hopefully we can keep the good run going with Saturday’s selection. Adrian Keatley has long thought very highly of Thebarrowman and he is stepped up massively in trip in the 4 mile Eider Chase at Newcastle. He comes here on the back of a poor run on his handicap debut when sent off fav last time out, but he only had a break of two weeks since his previous run and it may well have come too soon.

Keatley has freshened up his charge since then and he could be a different proposition after over a month off. The English handicapper hasn’t been too harsh, handing him a rating of 131, just 3lb higher than his Irish mark. He was only beaten 5L in a decent handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse off 130 last season on ground quicker than ideal, so back on a softer surface he should be well capable of landing a blow off his current rating. The cheekpieces and tongue tie worn that day are back on for the first time since. 

This 8yo son of Mahler is bred to get the marathon trip of Newcastle, being a half brother to very useful stayer Warrantor. Warren Greatrex’s son of Turtle Island has won at up to 2m 7f and he had an excellent placed effort when 3rd in the Midlands National at Uttoxeter over the monster trip of 33.5f.  It is no surprise that Adrian Keatley thinks The Barrowman will stay the trip, and Roger Loughran has travelled across the Irish Sea to take the ride.

Not many will fancy this fella after his last effort, but I am putting a line through it as I think it came too soon. His form behind the likes of Woods Well, Shattered Love and Tombstone show that he is a horse with plenty of ability, and he could turn out to be on a lenient mark. I think he looks a shade overpriced at odds of 25/1 and he is the each way selection for Saturday.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 14.45 NEWCASTLE-THEBARROWMAN E/W @ 25/1

Kilfenora Well Worth Crack At 3 Miles At Punchestown

When I saw the plunge on Nicat’s Benefit on Tuesday morning I was rubbing my hands in anticipation of a big run. Backed from as big as 33/1 into 8/1 at the off, some fingers were badly burned as she never looked like landing a blow. In what was a very strangely run race Nicat’s Benefit was never better than midfield, and perhaps she will be seen to better effect when Spring has properly sprung as both her wins came in March last year.
 

Kilfenora could bounce back from a poor effort last time.

Another horse I put up last time he ran was Kilfenora, and he too was very well backed from 20s into 8s. He was always out the back under Slippers Madden and eventually pulled up, but I think he is better than he showed that day at Leopardstown in that valuable handicap chase off a mark of 121 (17f sft). He had shaped much better previously at Navan (17f hvy), looking as though further might suit when finishing very strongly for 3rd.

I thought a fast run race over 17f would play to his strengths last time, but it wasn’t to be. Eddie Harty has had a rethink, and he is trying the 6yo son of Yeats at 3 miles back over timber at Punchestown in the Pertemps Qualifier this afternoon. He is rated 6lb higher (127) over the smaller obstacles and his only rules win came in a heavy ground 16f maiden hurdle at this meeting last year.

He signed off last season with a fine run over 22f on ground possibly quicker than ideal at Fairyhouse when 4th in a competitive handicap hurdle off a mark of 127, beaten 5L. Admittedly he is off the same mark here, but he kept on well at the finish that day after getting outpaced and the return to heavy ground and step up in trip could bring about some improvement.

He has been chasing this season and this will be his first run over timber since that fine run at Fairyhouse. This is a Pertemps Qualifier and perhaps the plan since Navan was to run in this, qualify for the Pertemps Handicap at the Cheltenham festival and try to sneak in off a low weight. First of all Kilfenora has to finish in the first six in this contest, and hopefully he can sneak into the first three at odds of 25/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 16.45 PUNCHESTOWN-KILFENORA E/W @ 25/1  

Cheltenham Gold Cup Early Thoughts

So, with just three weeks to go until the start of national hunt racing’s blue riband meeting, plenty will have made their minds up on what they are planning to back. Lots will already be on ante-post too and this last couple of weeks seem to take an eternity if you are on one of the market leaders at double figure odds. For me personally, what can go wrong usually does go wrong when it comes to my ante post betting and I like to leave it as late as possible before parting with my money.

Midnight Jazz is the only horse I have put up so far (Mares’ Hurdle), and my reason for doing so was because I thought she would get better ground than she did last time out and her price would have shortened if she won. As it turned out the ground was very testing and though she ran her usual brave race she was just run out of it in the closing stages. She is widely available at 66/1 after that run and I still believe that she is capable of much better if getting her preferred good ground.
 

I think if Sizing John is 100% he is the horse they all have to beat.

Last year I was extremely sweet on Sizing John for the Gold Cup, and at the beginning of the season I couldn’t see anyone that could beat him. His scorching turn of foot is a potent weapon at the end of such a gruelling race and when he hosed up on his seasonal comeback at Punchestown in December I was sure he would go off a short price favourite for his repeat bid at the festival in March.

However, he ran a very flat race at Leopardstown over the Xmas last time out, beaten over 30L back in 7th. Crucially though, that run came just 18 days after his win at Punchestown and perhaps he had a harder race there than it looked. Harrington’s horses weren’t sparkling at that stage of the season either and for those reasons I think it is prudent to put a line through that tame effort. If he turns up at the festival in tip top shape I believe he is the horse to beat at odds of 7/1.  
 

Definitly Red has emerged as a serious Gold Cup contender

At a bigger price, I think Definitly Red has the credentials to give each way players a serious run for their money. Brian Ellison’s pride and joy has looked imperious in winning heavy ground Grade 2s at Cheltenham and Aintree by a combined distance of 15L on his last two starts and he is obviously getting better with age. The 9yo son of Definite Article is arguably even more at home on nicer ground but he has to put two poor previous festival runs behind him.

In 2015 he was pulled up in the Albert Bartlett and he was going backwards fast in the 4 miler back in 2016. He swerved the festival altogether last year in preparation for a tilt at the Grand National, but he was badly hampered early doors in that race and had no chance after. Maybe Ellison is using this as a prep race for the National, just like Many Clouds did in 2015, but the Cheltenham Gold Cup looks as open a renewal as there has been for years and at odds of 20/1 he is Definitly worth chancing each way.

STEVOS' GOLD CUP SELECTIONS: SIZING JOHN 7/1 WIN; DEFINITLY RED 20/1 E/W.

Nicat Could Benefit From Return To Clonmel

I thought Skewiff ran a massive race for us on Saturday considering she was given a ride that Adam Wedge would probably like to forget. Unlike on her previous couple of runs she settled very nicely at the rear of the field early on, jumping fluently and travelling well within herself.

She started to move into contention during the final circuit, but Wedge chose to chart a very wide course and after making up a lot of ground Skewiff was shuffled back. She had to be switched too before the last and when Wedge finally got stuck in she stayed on very well to get up for 6th. With a kinder trip next time she could go close in a weaker race.
 

Nicat's Benefit seems to love running at Clonmel.

I am a sucker for a horse that has strong course form, and in the 18.5f handicap hurdle at Clonmel Nicat’s Benefit certainly ticks that box. Liz Lalor’s 7yo daughter of Beneficial has an excellent record at the County Tipperary track and she returns for her first handicap start here off what looks a very workable mark of 102 with Roger Loughran booked for the ride.

Loughran was on board for her last win in a maiden hurdle over this course and distance back in March 2017. His form figures when riding her at Clonmel read 315, in comparison to form figures of 8880056P elsewhere. It is Lalor’s local track too and she has had 4 winners and 4 top four finishers from just 15 runners. A win strike rate of 27% and a frame hitting strike rate of 53%.

Nicat’s benefit has scored twice at Clonmel, in the aforementioned 18.5f maiden on heavy and also in a bumper on heavy (finished 2nd awarded race). Her other two visits resulted in a 3rd behind Chambord Du Lys in a maiden hurdle (16f hvy) and a well beaten 5th when well out of her depth in a Listed Chase here back in November.

She has looked  badly out of form so far this season, but she has been running at the wrong trips. 3 miles was too far for her last time when claimer ridden at Fairyhouse, as was 2m 5f at Tramore when she was pulled up on her penultimate start. She drops back to her optimum trip, Roger Loughran is back in the plate and she races off a mark of just 102, 14lb lower than her initial rating awarded after her easy maiden hurdle win here.

I think Trans Wood and Glens DD, two horses I have tipped up already this season, could easily sicken us. Especially Trans Wood, who stayed on eye catchingly over 2f shorter last time out when I put her up at Punchestown. However, the bookies haven’t missed either of those horses who are both around the 10/1 mark, and at 33/1 I would rather take a chance on Nicat’s Benefit each way for small stakes.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 15.25 CLONMEL-NICAT’S BENEFIT E/W @ 33/1

Skewiff Could Show Staying Power At Ascot

Lydia’s Joy drifted to as big as 40/1 at one stage during the day, but when the stalls opened he was a 12/1 shot. Somebody clearly fancied the son of Holy Roman Emperor to run a big race, but unfortunately things didn’t go his way. He broke a lot better than last time, and he wasn’t that far away as they turned for home.

He looked to be travelling okay on the inner, but Andrew Slattery charted an extremely wide course and it cost Lydia’s Joy any chance of getting into the race. The market support suggests he has shown plenty at home, but with a rating of just 38 he needs to show more on the track, and soon.

Evan Williams has a decent record at Ascot.

I thought the step up in trip would suit Lydia’s Joy at Dundalk, and I fancy Skewiff at Ascot this afternoon for the same reason. This unexposed 6yo daughter of Doyen was last seen finishing well beaten at Chepstow, but the heavy ground and 19f trip were against her and I think it makes sense to put a line through that run.

Her Welsh trainer Evan Williams doesn’t travel to Ascot all that often, but when he does he usually means business. Williams has a fine record at the track, sending out 11 winners and 37 top 4 finishers from 102 runners. That is a near 50% frame hitting strike rate, and she is one of two runners there for Williams on Saturday (Court Minstrel is the other).

It was Skewiff’s first run for almost 3 months last time, so she may well have needed it fitness wise. The drop back in trip was an interesting move too as she ran a lovely race on her previous start when a fast finishing 3rd over 21f at Ludlow on good ground. After watching that race back a couple of times it looked like she needed further to me, and moving back to 19f surprised me.

She was outpaced before staying on strongly close home when winning her bumper (16f gd/sft), and she needed every inch of the 2 mile trip when winning on her hurdling debut at Ffos Las. Her full brother Valdez is a Grade 2 16f winner and has won on soft ground, and a couple of her half siblings won at 13f, 14f and 16f on the level, so her pedigree suggests this trip could suit.

As for her rating of 115, I think it could be workable. This is just her second start in handicap company and the form of her run at Ludlow has worked out pretty well. Majestic Moll was just over a length ahead of her in 2nd and she hacked up in a novice next time. The 4th home has also won a novice since, while the winner fell when cruising in a handicap hurdle off 122. 

That effort at Ludlow over the longest trip she has tackled to date suggests to me that this mare is a stayer and physically she looks like one too. Adam Wedge is 2/3 on Skewiff and he takes over in the plate. Wth no rain forecast the course at Ascot could dry out and the more it does, the better it is for Skewiff. At odds of 25/1 she is the each way selection for small stakes.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 16.10 ASCOT-SKEWIFF E/W @ 25/1 (4 PLACES POWERS)

Lydia’s Supporters Might Be Jumping For Joy At Dundalk

Elzaa produced a bitterly disappointing effort at Fairyhouse, despite being apparently well backed throughout the day. It looks like it was shrewd punters rather than connections backing her judging by her performance, as she never looked like landing a blow. She can jump though, and she has form on good ground on the level so perhaps when the weather improves she might come into her own in handicaps.

Lydia's Joy wasn't far behind in form Bluesbreaker last time.

Friday nights at Dundalk usually produce a juicily priced winner or two, and one man that is no stranger to firing one in at rewarding odds is Anthony McCann. I was at the County Louth track a fortnight ago when Lydia’s Joy ran and I had a small e/w bet on him simply because of the stable’s form. McCann has his string in fine fettle and though he hasn’t had a winner from his last ten runners, he has rattled the crossbar more than once.


Lydia’s Joy showed very little when trained by Jimmy Larkin, but he showed plenty last time on his first run in over 6 months. He made his reappearance over 6f off a mark of 45 with Damian Melia claiming 7lb and it didn’t start well as he was slowest away from the gates by some distance. Melia didn’t rush him to get back into the race and he was happy to let him gallop away on the inner in the last three.

As they turned in Melia was kidding him along and he went for a run up the inner. To his credit Lydia’s Joy kept on pretty well in the final furlong and though he finished 8th he was only around 3L behind in form Bluesbreaker who finished 3rd and in close proximity to a few other horses rated in the low to mid 60s. It was a big step up on his handicap debut at Listowel and he should strip a lot fitter with that run behind him.

Lydia’s Joy is nicely bred, a 5yo gelding by Holy Roman Emperor and out of a dam related to a host of winners at up to 10f. The way he ran last time, and his pedigree, suggest that a mile could be perfect right now and McCann is claiming 10lb with talented young pilot Andrew Slattery. Lydia’s Joy is officially rated 38 but has to run off 45, so technically with Slattery’s allowance she is carrying 3lb less than she should be. At odds of 33/1 she could run well and a small each way bet is advised.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 19.00 DUNDALK-LYDIA’S JOY E/W @ 33/1 (4 places available)

McAllister’s Mare Overpriced At Fairyhouse

Without Limites was ridden with a bit more restraint than usual on Sunday at Punchestown but we will never know if his stamina would have held out as he fell. He was still travelling well for Donagh Meyler when he tipped up at the 13th, just as the race was taking shape, and as he was sent off at just 8/1 it seems that connections expected a big run. He is not one to lose faith in yet as he is potentially a very well handicapped horse.
 

Without Limites could be worth keeping onside.

Tomorrow I am going back to the well with Elzaa, a mare I tipped up for her last run here at Fairyhouse. She was sent off at 33/1 for that mares’ maiden hurdle and she was a lot nearer the front than the back when taking a false step on the flat down the back and unshipping Adam Short. She was initially priced up at 66/1 for Wednesday’s race over the same course and distance and that has been snapped up. 50s can still be got though and at that price she is still worthy of a small each way bet.

The same reasons still stand for me fancying her as last time, and I think she looks booked for 4th at the very least here if putting in a clear round. It was frustrating because she jumped very nicely in the main here last time, and it wasn’t a hurdling error that caused her to get rid of her jockey. She fell when bang there with every chance at the final hurdle at Ballinrobe back in September and it was another decent effort to finish 6th of 18 behind Apparition at Thurles.

She should have no issues on the forecast testing ground at Fairyhouse on Wednesday as it was very testing for her best run at Ballinrobe. Adam Short keeps the ride and with his 5lb claim Elzaa has to carry less than 10 stone. She looks to be up against the three at the head of the market, but if one or more of them underperform she could be the one best placed to benefit and at 50/1 she is worth backing each way for small stakes.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 13.25 FAIRYHOUSE-ELZAA E/W @ 50/1

Step Up In Trip To Suit Limites At Punchestown

Coeur Blimey never travelled and barely jumped a hurdle fluently, yet he still managed to stay on late for a place for Lucy Gardner. He is clearly a horse with a huge amount of ability, but the cheekpieces had little to no effect on his jumping. In fact, that was probably the worst round of jumping I have seen from him yet, and until his trainer finds a way to improve his hurdling technique he will continue to be a frustrating sort. He is undeniably a well treated horse if he ever does get his act together.

 

Without Limites will relish the heavy ground at Punchestown.

Tomorrow is Grand National Trial day at Punchestown and with bottomless ground forecast the 28.5f trip will take a lot of getting. Liz Doyle has always spoken very highly of her dashing grey 6yo gelding Without Limites, and I think he ran a superb race upped in trip to 25f here last time out on his handicap debut on heavy ground. He was beaten 7L in 3rd off a mark of 128 after attempting to make all the running, but in my opinion it wasn’t a lack of stamina that beat him.

After jumping very well throughout he pecked on landing after jumping the 2nd last and that put him on the back foot immediately. He lost a fair bit of momentum and Finny Maguire had to get busy soon after, but he kept on galloping and didn’t look a tired horse to me. I think he just got outpaced by the first two in the last couple of furlongs after making that mistake and he should be able to travel better for longer over today’s marathon trip.

The handicapper has raised him a pound for that run here last time but he still gets to race off a lovely weight of just 10st 7lbs. The form of his last run has been franked in no uncertain terms by the 4th home, 6L behind Without Limites. Wishmoor won his next start and then followed up at Naas off 7lb higher on Saturday. That would suggest that Without Limites is potentially very well treated on just his second handicap chase start.

Donagh Meyler takes over in the plate and he has form figures of 21 on board this son of Martaline. He has a fine overall record when riding for Doyle too, partnering 5 winners and 8 2nds from just 29 rides. If he can poach an easy lead on Without Limites he could be hard to peg back, and this horse is yet to finish out of the first three in three chasing runs. Hopefully he can continue that sequence on Sunday and at odds of 20/1 an each way bet is advised.


STEVOS’ SELECTION: 16.20 PUNCHESTOWN-WITHOUT LIMITES E/W @ 20/1

Lump On Lucy At Newbury

Unfortunately, First Of Never was in need of the outing at Doncaster and he faded badly in the closing stages. I probably need my head examined, but I just can’t let go and back on better ground I will more than likely give him another couple of chances. Don’t worry though, I won’t be putting him up on the blog again anytime soon!!
 

Cheekpieces could do the trick for Coeur Blimey.

Tomorrow is Betfair Hurdle day at Newbury and the horse I would most love to see win is Lalor. The Woollacott’s deserve a day in the sun more than most, and he would be a fairytale winner for Kayley and the rest of the team. He is always a horse I have thought a lot of and I backed him at silly odds for the Supreme at the start of the season. He still holds an entry, but he would want to be winning this doing handstands to have a hope in that race.

The bookies haven’t missed Lalor and he is priced up at around 12/1. At double that price I think the first time cheekpieces could work the oracle on Coeur Blimey. Sue and Lucy Gardner team up with this 7yo son of Winged Love and he comes here on the back of a fine effort off the same mark of 132 in the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton (21f soft).

He ran a cracker that day in 6th beaten just over 8L and his jumping was a lot better than it was on his previous start at Ascot in a Grade 2 heat. He is better off in the weights with Spiritofthegames who was 2nd that day and the drop back in trip should suit the Gardner’s horse better. All his best form has come at the minimum trip and a strongly run race over 2 miles will be ideal.

Lucy Gardner has been on board for both of Coeur Blimey’s win and she claims a handy 3lb. She may not be the most stylish of riders, but she knows how to win and she has done so on 38 occasions. All I know is that she has done me plenty of favours down through the years and she proved when landing a monster gamble on this fella in a Listed bumper at Ascot that she can get the job done when the pressure is on.

Coeur Blimey beat Ballyandy that day, the Cheltenham bumper winner in 2016 who is now rated 147 over hurdles. Coeur Blimey’s jumping has stopped him from hitting the same heights as Ballyandy, but if the cheekpieces sharpen that up I have no doubt that he has the engine to be a serious horse over timber. Hopefully he proves me right tomorrow, and at odds of 25/1 I think he is worth chancing each way.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 15.35 NEWBURY-COEUR BLIMEY E/W @ 25/1

Never Say Never

Sometimes you can end up on skid row by following a horse over a cliff, and I have been guilty of that on more than one occasion. Luckily for me though, most of the horses that catch my eye are usually of the higher priced persuasion and even if they don’t win it is still possible to turn a profit from each way bets. First Of Never is a perfect example of such a horse, and I have followed Lynn Siddall’s charge for a longer time than I care to remember.

Jamie Bargary comes in for the ride on First Of Never.

This very frustrating 12yo son of Systematic first caught my eye as a sprightly 8yo all the way back in March 2014, and I cannot believe he still hasn’t managed to win a race since then. The first time I ever backed him was in a 21f handicap hurdle at Towcester off a mark of 74 two months later, and he ran a lovely race to finish 4th of 17 at odds of 33/1.

I had snapped up 40s that morning so I was happy enough to sneak a place and he was placed again, this time when 2nd at Doncaster (19.5f gd/sft), two runs later and again he could be backed at very rewarding odds. However, the fact remains that after 33 starts First Of Never remains a maiden, with just 7 placed finishes to show for all his efforts.

I must need my head examined for thinking this fella is still capable of winning a race, but this time last year he ran a humdinger over today’s course and distance (gd) to finish a close up 3rd behind two rivals (Stepover and Calarules) rated 92 and 100 respectively. That effort came from 4lb out of the handicap, and 2f out he was travelling like a dream out in front before tiring after the last.

He is again running from out of the handicap returned to this course and distance for the first time since and Lynn Siddall has booked Jamie Bargary for the ride. First Of Never has lots of placed form on good to soft ground so once underfoot conditions don’t deteriorate he should be fine. He has run well fresh before, from five starts at Doncaster he has form figures of 23003 and at odds of 50/1 hopefully he rewards e/w support. If he doesn’t, I think it is safe to say I will never tip Never again.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: 16.40 DONCASTER-FIRST OF NEVER E/W @ 50/1

Jump On Jazz At 66s For Mares’ Race At Festival

Most of the biggest trial races have now been run and I think everyone is a lot more the wiser as to what appeals to them for the Cheltenham Festival. On Day 2 of the Dublin Racing festival none of my selections hit the frame, but I think we may have witnessed something special from Samcro. The way he won suggested he is a horse with an insane amount of ability, and if Gordon Elliott gets him to the festival in top shape we could see a performance that will really get the pulse racing.

 

Samcro looked the real deal at Leopardstown.

I was a doubter before Sunday, but after watching him wipe the floor with some very useful horses I am now convinced that Samcro is the real deal. I hesitate to use the dreaded ‘B’ word that is loved by so many Irish punters, but from what we have seen he is the closest thing to a banker you can get. He should win whatever race he turns up in, and from what I have heard through the grapevine he will be heading for the Supreme. His price is long gone now though, and for a festival fancy at a much bigger odds just read on.

At last year’s Cheltenham Festival I thought Midnight Jazz had a very good chance of reaching the frame but she didn’t seem to show her best. My reason for fancying her was her superb effort when beaten by just a head by Vroum Vroum Mag in a Grade 2 heat at Doncaster, and I thought that if she could repeat that run at a track where she had run well before then she could easily sneak a place.

However, I don’t think Ben Case had counted on her being good enough to go to Cheltenham at the start of the season and because of that she was having her 6th run by the time she got to the Festival. On top of that, she had a very hard race against Vroum Vroum Mag on her previous start too. I think these factors combined to stop Midnight Jazz from producing her very best, and now that Ben Case knows she has the ability to compete at this level he has altered her training plan so that she should be peaking come March.

She has had just the two runs so far this season, making her seasonal reappearance with a quiet run at Ludlow at the start of December. Her only start since came at Sandown in a Listed heavy ground 20f hurdle and she ran a blinder to finish 2nd behind Poppy Kay, a very useful mare in her own right who has won 5 from 9 under rules, only ever finishing out of the money once. They will renew rivalries at Warwick on Saturday and I think Ben Case’s 8yo daughter of Midnight Legend could reverse the form.

Midnight Jazz putting it right up to Vroum Vroum Mag at Doncaster.

Midnight Jazz started last season with form figures of 12122, with that final second coming in that pulsating battle with Vroum Vroum Mag. The way she has started this term suggests that Case has left himself with plenty to work with fitness wise, and she should come on bundles for her first two runs back. She will also appreciate the likely better ground at Cheltenham too as her best form has come on good. I am expecting a big run from her on Saturday, and if she does manage to win I can see her shortening up for the festival.

If her form last season is anything to go by she should come on leaps and bounds for the outing at Warwick, and this time she will hopefully be heading to Cheltenham cherry ripe. She is usually a quick and efficient hurdler, and while she is a small mare she is as game as a pebble. She has run well at Cheltenham twice from three visits and she wasn’t disgraced in the Mares’ Hurdle when 10th in 2017. I believe she could be capable of better than that, and while Apple’s Jade will be hard to beat Midnight Jazz could sneak into the frame at odds of 66/1.


STEVOS’ SELECTION: MARES’ HURDLE CHELTENHAM: MIDNIGHT JAZZ E/W @ 66/1 

Leopardstown Dublin Racing Festival Day 2

Well, the Dublin Festival started with a bang on Saturday and so did we, with Tower Bridge getting up in the dying strides for us in the opener at 40/1. Joseph O’Brien and JJ Slevin won their first ever national hunt Grade 1, and Tower Bridge will be even better on nicer ground. Simply Ned and Mick Jazz also placed for us at 12/1 and 14/1, but typically the two I fancied most ran poorly.

Tower Bridge did the business for us on Day 1.

Kilfenora was never put in the race and pulled up, while Agent Boru got badly outpaced before staying on strongly again in the last furlong. His best trip remains a mystery, and perhaps he won’t be seen to best effect until getting genuine good ground. I fancy a few more at fancy odds tomorrow and you can find out what they are by reading below.  


Race 1

The one I like at a big price in this 2m 2f mares’ handicap hurdle is Dermot McLoughlin’s 7yo daughter of Holy Roman Emperor, Dixie Lee. This Down Royal maiden hurdle winner (16f yld) has failed to back that up in three runs since, but she has been running on ground that has been softer than ideal and with Tower Bridge winning on Saturday my guess is that the ground is closer to yielding than soft at Leopardstown.

It was very gluey and testing when she disappointed here last time out behind Trainwreck, but her previous run in a Grade 3 when 4th beaten 8L wasn’t too bad considering the ground was against her. Mark Enright keeps the faith with this mare and she had subsequent maiden winners Osco Mosco and Court Artist well behind her when winning at Down Royal. I think the ground is absolutely crucial for Dixie Lee, and at odds of 25/1 she could go well.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: DIXIE LEE E/W @ 25/1

Race 2

Espoir D’Allen has moved up through the grades with consummate ease for Gavin Cromwell since arriving from France. He is 4/4 over timber, and his Grade 2 win here last time was his best performance yet. However, he is a shade of odds on and at 5/2 I think Farclas could give him plenty to think about.

Gordon Elliott’s son of Jukebox Jury was having his first ever run over hurdles last time here in the Grade 2 won by Espoir D’Allen and he ran a huge race to finish 2nd, beaten just over a length. He is sure to come on bundles for that outing, and he could be open to a lot of improvement. He represents value in what essentially looks a match, and at odds of 5/2 Farclas is the pick.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: FARCLAS @ 5/2
 

Debuchet looks a big danger to Samcro.

Race 3

I have been hearing rumours that Samcro might not take his chance tomorrow, but I hope he does because I don’t want a big rule 4 applied to my NAP. Debuchet is a horse that I not only fancy for today, but I also think he can be a big threat in the Supreme if he decides to go that route. He has been written off by many after being beaten on his seasonal return here over Xmas, but he was unlikely to have been fully wound up for that and he should come on loads for it.

Samcro is the hype horse in Ireland, filling the role played by Death Duty last season. He has undoubtedly been visually impressive but the biggest question is, what has he been beating? Mind’s Eye and Jack Dillinger were behind him at Punchestown and they haven’t done much since. He beat Jetz easily last time, and while that horse did run well in a Grade 1 here behind Tower Bridge on Saturday, I think it was one of the weaker top level races of the weekend.

Debuchet’s form has a lot more substance, once a line is put through his seasonal comeback. His run at Cheltenham when chasing home the ill fated Fayonagh is in a different league to anything Samcro has done. He had some serious horses in behind that day, and he hosed up in a Listed Bumper at Limerick next time out. He will appreciate the nice ground at Leopardstown, he should be fully fit with his comeback run behind him and at 14/1 he is my each way NAP of the day.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: DEBUCHET @ 14/1 E/W NAP

Race 4

Willie Mullins and Rachael Blackmore teamed up with Patricks Park to take the big handicap chase on Saturday, and Giant Spirit has been backed to repeat the trick in this 3 mile handicap hurdle for that combination. However, I like the chances of Racing Pulse off a mark of just 123 and the booking of Brian Hayes is an interesting one. He was 4th on 25/1 shot Makitorix for Mullins in the Coral Hurdle here yesterday, and he has hit the frame on 7 of 14 rides for the yard (1 win).

Racing Pulse is a three time winner from nineteen starts under rules, including one handicap chase. He used to be trained in the UK by Rebecca Curtis and then by Richard Hobson, and he started out for Mullins by being pulled up as 5/2 fav in the Cork National. Heavy ground and the 20f trip were against him last time, but he is of interest off his current mark back up in trip on slightly better ground. He was rated 144 over timber at one stage, and at odds of 28/1 he is the e/w pick.


STEVOS’ SELECTION: RACING PULSE E/W @ 28/1

Race 5

I put Bon Papa up last time when he was upped to 3 miles here, and he ran well in a dramatic race that saw odds on favourite Monalee fall. Bon Papa caught my eye with the quality of his jumping, particularly from the 5th last when Monalee fell, and he looked as though he might win before his stamina gave out on the extended run in and he faded into 3rd.

Bon Papa impressed with his jumping here last time.

I think the drop back in trip to 21f is the right move for Bon Papa after that run, and the application of a tongue tie would suggest that he may have had some problems breathing last time. The tongue tie could bring about another jolt of improvement from Bon Papa and with Mark Walsh taking over in the plate I think he could outrun his odds of 28/1.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: BON PAPA E/W @ 28/1

Race 6

It is disappointing, but understandable, that we won’t get to see Sizing John or Coney Island in this Cheltenham Gold Cup trial. In fairness, with 200k prize money on offer the Irish Gold Cup is more than just a trial. The bookies reckon Our Duke’s last run was just a blip and he has been installed as the 10/3 favourite. At a bigger price I think Minella Rocco could go well on this nice ground.

Minella Rocco will love the ground at Leopardstown.

Jonjo O’Neill’s flat bred 8yo son of Shirocco flew home for 2nd behind Sizing John in the big one last year and that ultimately must be his aim for the season. He has had three nothing runs so far this season but his last one here over Xmas was his best and he could be on his way back to top form. I think he will be hard to beat if he can repeat the form of his run at Cheltenham last March and at odds of 11/1 he should be well capable of hitting the frame.


STEVOS’ SELECTION: MINELLA ROCCO E/W @ 11/1 NB

Race 7

The penultimate race of the Dublin Racing Festival is a 21f handicap chase and a total of 22 horses are due to go to post. British raider Hell’s Kitchen is the favourite for Barry Geraghty and Harry Fry, but in races like this a small each way bet at bigger odds is the approach to take. At a monster price I think Colms Dream looks an interesting contender for Karl Thornton and Donagh Meyler. This 9yo son of Beneficial looked a chaser going places this time two years ago.

If he is at his best Colms Dream could go well at a price.

He hacked up in a handicap chase over today’s c&d off a mark of 125 and followed that up with a fine run at Punchestown behind Irish Cavalier off 139. He has only seen the track twice since then so he has evidently had some issues, but his spin over timber here at Xmas will have put him right for this return to chasing. If he retains his old spark he is capable of making his presence felt at odds of 40/1 off a mark of 140.


STEVOS’ SELECTION: COLMS DREAM E/W @ 40/1

RACE 8

Not a race that interests me and I won’t be having a bet.

Leopardstown Dublin Racing Festival Day 1

This Saturday and Sunday at Leopardstown there will be some of the finest national hunt horses on the planet on show. All the big Cheltenham contenders will be doing some fine tuning on what will likely be their final outing before the festival and if you are able, it is a meeting well worth going to. I have gone through the card with a fine tooth comb and you can check out my fancies for Day 1 below.

McManus and O'Brien could team up to good effect with Tower Bridge.

 Race 1

It is a case of straight in, no kissing at Leopardstown on Saturday with a Grade 1 to open proceedings. This 2m 6f Novices’ Hurdle has attracted a field of seven classy stayers and Dortmund Park is the 7/4 favourite after hosing up in a heavy ground novice at Thurles. He scored by 16L that day and on a line through the 3rd Discorama, who was 5L behind 144 rated Ex Patriot, the form looks solid.

However, at a much bigger price, I think Tower Bridge looks a fascinating contender for Joseph O’Brien and JJ Slevin. This son of High Chapparal has a very good flat pedigree, but he showed he had an aptitude for hurdling with a smashing run here over 20f last time out. He had to challenge widest of all and he met trouble in the home straight, but he finished with a wet sail for a close 4th. The extra two furlongs look sure to suit, and at odds of 40/1 he could surprise with a big run.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: TOWER BRIDGE E/W @ 40/1

Simply Ned looks overpriced for rematch with Min.

 Race 2

On the figures Yorkhill should win this 17f Grade 2 Chase quite comfortably, but as his last run showed he can be a difficult horse to predict. It is not often you see a horse that was beaten 59L last time out at even money, and it would take a brave punter to weigh in at that price on such a tricky customer. The massive drop back in trip to 17f from 24f looks sure to suit though, and if he is on a going day he will be hard to beat.

Yorkhill’s stable companion Min is next best in the betting at 5/2, and he needs to be a lot better than he was last time when demoted into 2nd here behind Simply Ned. Nicky Richards’ charge will be looking to follow up his win here last time, and I am surprised to see him priced up at 9s. He is best when produced late off a fast pace, and with Min, Yorkhill and Special Tiara in the field that looks a given. I think 9/1 is far too big for a horse with form figures of 1323 over this c&d and he is the each way suggestion.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: SIMPLY NED E/W @ 9/1

Race 3

Footpad looks impossible to oppose here and with just five runners this is not a betting heat for me.

Race 4

This 20 runner handicap chase looks a wide open renewal and a case can be made for any amount of them. When I browsed through the entries earlier this week Kilfenora caught my eye, and it is no surprise that the 16/1 about him has long gone. The JP McManus owned and Eddie Harty trained son of Yeats will be ridden by Slippers Madden, and at odds of 10/1 I think he has a right chance.

He sneaks in off a feather weight of just 9st 10lbs and he comes here on the back of an excellent effort on chase handicap debut behind Sizing Titanium at Navan when 3rd off 118 over 17f on heavy ground. He is 3lb higher here, but he is only a 6yo and there could be heaps more improvement to come. At odds of 10/1 I think he could be the one to beat.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: KILFENORA E/W @ 10/1 NAP
 

Mick Jazz looks well overpriced.

Race 5

I was at Leopardstown when Faugheen pulled up last time, and if you follow my Mybettingbonus tips you will know I was on Mick Jazz. The two lock horns again on Saturday in the Grade 1 Irish Champion Hurdle, and Faugheen is the 11/10 fav while Mick Jazz is as big as 14/1.

Faugheen is now a 10yo, and apart from Hurricane Fly there have been very few 2 mile hurdlers capable of competing at the highest level at that age. He has had a long injury lay-off too, so there are a lot of question marks about him. I think Mick Jazz has another big run in him at his optimum trip for Davy Russell and Gordon Elliott, and I will be keeping the faith and backing him each way.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: MICK JAZZ E/W @ 14/1

Race 6

With 29 horses going to post, this Grade B 2 mile handicap hurdle is right up my street. I am convinced that Tom Gibney’s lightly raced 7yo Agent Boru is better than his mark of 122, and his run here last time over 20f did nothing to convince me otherwise. He was posted a least 8 horses wide throughout but he led as they approached the 2nd last and he managed to hold on for a decent 5th.

His penultimate run at Fairyhouse is the main reason I fancy him today though. That 2 mile race was run at a good gallop and just as Agent Boru was finding his stride and starting to stay on he got squeezed out. He was switched and flew home for 5th, but I think with a clear run he might have won. If he can get a decent early position on the inner I think Jonathan Moore could get a right tune out of him, and at odds of 50/1 he has to be worth chancing e/w.

STEVOS’ SELECTION: AGENT BORU E/W @ 50/1 NB

Race 7

Bumpers aren’t really my cup of tea and I will likely be in a taxi en-route back to Stevos’ Towers by the time the race is off. No selection.