It has been a great September so far for the West of Ireland
with Galway bringing home the bacon in the senior and minor All Ireland hurling finals.
Mayo will be hoping that they can complete the hat trick in the All Ireland
football final but they are up against one of the best, if not the best, team
of all time. Mayo had Dublin on the rack in the 2016 final but couldn’t finish the job, and that has been a recurring theme with them down through the years. It is
admirable that they keep bouncing back, but they will probably come up short yet
again against the Dubs.
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| Andy Moran will find life tougher against Dublin. |
Andy Moran has been their main man up front this season and
he caused Kerry all sorts of problems. However, Kerry’s full back line looked
slow and laboured and I don’t think he will have near as much joy against the
Dubs. Either Mick Fitzsimons or Philly McMahon will be handed the task of
marking Moran and they have a lot more pace than Shane Enright. In fact, I
would go as far to say that Kerry’s full back line was way below the level required and it
is an area they need to strengthen considerably if they want to contend for Sam
Maguire in future seasons.
A big part of Mayo’s performance against Kerry in the replay
were the forays forward of Kevin McLoughlin, Colm Boyle and Keith Higgins from
deep. Kerry just didn’t have the pace to deal with those three but Dublin can
call upon Jack McCaffrey and Johnny Cooper in the half back line and those two
are quick enough to nullify the threat caused by the Mayo trio. Mayo will
also have to deal with the problems posed by those two going forward, something
that they didn’t have to worry about against Kerry. John Small will hold court
in the middle and Mayo won’t find the goal chances coming so easily against
this Dublin rear guard.
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| Jim Gavin has lost just one Championship match with Dublin. |
Seamie O’Shea and Tom Parsons played really well in the
engine room against Kerry but it is doubtful that they will be as dominant
against Brian Fenton and James McCarthy. Those two are at least equally as
mobile as the Mayo pair and they are a big danger going forward. Parsons and
O’Shea will have their hands full trying to mark the two of them and that could
lessen their influence on proceedings at the other end of the pitch. Both
McCarthy and Fenton are as effective in defence as they are in attack and the
fact that Mick MacAuley barely gets a look in tells you a lot about the
strength in depth in this Dublin squad.
The biggest difference between Dublin and Mayo is scoring
power. Dublin have unearthed another gem in Con O’Callaghan and they have
barely missed the suspended Diarmuid Connolly thanks to the Cuala man. His goal
against Tyrone brought back memories of Ciaran Duff at his majestic best and he has the potential to
be a superstar in the coming years. Ciaran Kilkenny plays a bit too laterally
for my liking at times but he is never afraid to look for the ball and he will
link up the play at the business end for the Dubs.
Dean Rock’s ability
from placed balls is a big asset for Dublin, though Cillian O’Connor is
equally as accurate for Mayo. Paul Mannion’s pace is another weapon for The Dubs and Peadar Andrews is lethal with both feet. With messrs Connolly,
McManamon and Bernard Brogan laying in wait on the sidelines Dublin have no shortage of firepower in reserve and Mayo will have their hands full trying to contain the Dublin forward line for the full 70 minutes.
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| Stephen Cluxton has revolutionised the role of goalkeepers. |
Another area where Dublin have a distinct advantage is their
ability to retain possession from their own kick outs. As a former ‘keeper I have huge admiration for the saves David Clarke has pulled off this
year, and only for him Mayo would have been eliminated already. He has proved
his manager totally wrong after the daft decision to drop him for last year’s
final replay but the nagging doubt still remains as to how effective his kick outs
are, and will be, against an extremely mobile Dublin front 6.
Stephen Cluxton is just as good a shot stopper as Clarke and
when it comes to distribution there is nobody better than the Dublin custodian.
Clarke has been guilty of some wayward kick outs at times and Dublin will
punish him if he misplaces one. Cluxton, on the other hand, has been as
accurate as ever and he is one of the main reasons for Dublin’s success in the
past decade. He broke Tyrone’s hearts with his variation of delivery from the
13m line and he is surgeon like with his precision.
I don’t think it can be underestimated how influential Cluxton
is, and has always been, for this Dublin team and the longer he plays the longer Dublin’s domination will
last. He has revolutionised the role of the goalkeeper in modern football and
he deserves every accolade that comes his way. He isn’t getting any younger,
but he has looked better than ever this season and you get the feeling he could
go on for quite a few years yet.
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| There could be more heartbreak on the cards for Stephen Rochford. |
So, from a betting perspective, where is the money to be
made? Students of form will look at last year’s drawn match and replay and the
obvious conclusion is that Mayo are overpriced at odds of 3/1. If you look
solely at the results in last year’s final then yes, they do look too big.
However, if you look at who Mayo have beaten and how they have played
throughout the year then 3/1 looks pretty skinny. They lost to Galway, almost
lost to Derry and Roscommon and they beat a bad Kerry team at the second attempt.
Dublin strolled through Leinster, hammered Monaghan and knocked
the socks off a well regarded Tyrone team. Their entire bench would walk straight onto
the majority of intercounty teams in Ireland and their manager has lost just
one championship game during his tenure, vs Donegal in 2014. Okay, they lost
the League Final to Kerry but I reckon Gavin has them trained to the
minute this season and they will be in peak condition on the 3rd Sunday in September.
Romantics and dreamers, it is time to look elsewhere for your happy ending. Just like Mayweather vs McGregor there is only going to be one outcome here. I
think Dublin could make a real statement of intent against this Mayo team as regards
their intentions for the future. Dublin -5 at odds of 6/4 is the recommendation. Sam Maguire is staying put for another year at the very least.
ALL IRELAND FINAL TIP: DUBLIN VS MAYO: DUBLIN -5 @ 6/4
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